Win, lose, and draw on mini-Tuesday

by Anthony Figliola  

   

 Long Island Business News (May 20, 2010) 

 

Republicans, Democrats and even tea party believers were watching Tuesday's elections in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and Arkansas viewing it as a litmus test for November's midterm elections.  All three groups had to be a little disappointed.

 

In Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District, Democrat Mark Critz, a former Congressional staffer defeated Republican Tim Burns in a special election to fill the seat left vacant by the late Rep. John Murtha.  Democrats were able to hold onto the seat in spite of a recent poll that showed President Obama's approval rating at 35 percent in a district that John McCain carried in 2008.

 

For Democrats this election holds out hope that they can still keep many at their seats and perhaps the anti-establishment trend advancing by the tea party movement might not be strong enough for Republican's to take back the House.

 

For Republicans, things just keep getting worse.  In Kentucky, the state Republican Party led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, failed to defeat newcomer Rand Paul in the state's Senate primary. Paul, who had the backing of the tea party walloped his opponent, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson.

 

Paul attributes his win to the fact that people are tired of the status quo. However, the road ahead will be tough for Paul as a recent polling memo, reported that 53 percent of Grayson supporters would not vote for him because of his tea party leanings. That has to help the Democratic candidate.

 

The Democratic primary fight for U.S. Senate in Arkansas ended in a draw between incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Governor Bill Walter, forcing a run-off election that is scheduled for June 8. However, polls have Republican candidate Rep. John Boozman ahead of both Democrats by almost 20 points in the general election.

 

Tuesday's elections uncovered great strife within the national Republican Party. Instead of working as a unit, they have broken off into smaller divisions and have begun to eliminate their brethren in divisive primary fights. But it also reinvigorated the Democrats and gave them hope that they can still win in November in spite of Obama's low approval ratings and their votes on healthcare.

 

The question that eludes both parties is how will these newly minted Republican/Tea Party candidates fare in a general election and how much of an impact will "yes" votes on healthcare and the stimulus money have on Democratic incumbents.

 

For the Republicans the road ahead got a little bumpier. For the Democrats the road ahead has one or two less potholes, but there are still quite a few.  And for the tea party, they still need to prove they are a real organization and not just a group of disenfranchised Republican's angry with their party, so for now the road ahead is a dirt road.